Thursday, August 28, 2008

Part 2 for tonight's analysis - see previous post for trades and analysis as well

I posted this after I was asked by one of the readers a few questions. So let me clarify some more:

USD/CHF Analysis below:

I have added the profit target and depicted that on the chart below for the head and shoulders pattern. Now if and when will this target be reached? We are looking at the hourly charts and each bar represents one hour on the time scale. It could be a few days or even a week before the target is reached or could be earlier. If the price hits my stop which is placed just above the second shoulder most likely the pattern will not hold true. Most novices make the mistake of putting the stops too close and are afraid to pay the rollover interest. I ask of them would you rather spend a few pips and make over a hundred pips or would you rather focus on a few pips? If my target is to make 120 pips, I have no issues in paying 20 pips in rollover interest.








GBP/USD analysis below:



Once again here the price may hit the upper channel before proceeding down and hitting the profit target. It may take a few days or even a week (this is once again an hourly chart). Also remember the prices do not move straight up or down but they do zig zag with retracements. The important thing is we are trading in the direction of the trend. There is nothing to suggest the trend has broken and a reversal is in effect and so the trade should hold good so far. Once again as you can see the lower lows and lower highs and my stop is placed just above the previous high. So if a new high gets created and my trade gets stopped out with a loss it may be an early indicator of either a reversal or pause in the trend. Further analysis at that time would be needed to determine that. Once again most novice traders make the mistake of putting their stops too close and get stopped out. My trades are currently in the negative but well within the pattern which continues to hold true and hence there is no need for me to panic to close out my trade and make an emotional decision. I would rather make an informed judgement call. Once a new low is formed I could potentially move my limit further and aim for higher profits and also move my stop up to reduce my loss exposure. But then these are additional and advanced techniques which I will cover in the future if the pattern holds true. I could also trade mulitple lots and make more. There was a similar situation on the NZD/USD earlier (see my earlier posts on the NZD/USD)


Hope this helps and feel free as usual to ask any questions....
Happy to clarify and help out and share my knowledge....
Good Luck Trading...

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