We have incurred a net loss of approx 30 pips bteween July and August to date 2008. We made approx 325 pips for June 2008 leaving us with approx 295 pips since June 2008.
Let me say this, I made this mistake most traders make. I got emotionally attached to my trade thinking the USD would weaken. I took a few days off and am back.
All fundamentals still favor a weak dollar. My read of the current situation is this:
The weak US economy is hurting the globe as US is the largest net importer. Further the slight increase in oil inventories have led to market correction for Oil prices which is the excuse the markets have been looking for to strengthen the dollar. The feds announced no new rate increases and yet the dollar became strong against the Swiss Franc !! that too inspite of weak economic data.
The speculators on the commodities market have run their course and hence the oil bubble is bust for the time being.
Will the oil weaken further resulting in a stronger dollar purely due to oil prices? Where will the oil prices settle? I do not know but I do think there will be some back and forth before the prices of oil settle. Whether above $100 or below remains to be seen.
The dollar has gained too much in the last two weeks and anytime we have seen such sudden movement there is a correction and I think this week will tell us if this will happen or not.
I am staying away from trading tonight as it is not clear for the moment where the market will head.
As you can see below from my statement in another account I am 840+ pips on the EUR/USD alone (testing some long term trades).
I will post more trades this week however.
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