Part 2 for tonight's analysis - see previous post for trades and analysis as well

I posted this after I was asked by one of the readers a few questions. So let me clarify some more:

USD/CHF Analysis below:

I have added the profit target and depicted that on the chart below for the head and shoulders pattern. Now if and when will this target be reached? We are looking at the hourly charts and each bar represents one hour on the time scale. It could be a few days or even a week before the target is reached or could be earlier. If the price hits my stop which is placed just above the second shoulder most likely the pattern will not hold true. Most novices make the mistake of putting the stops too close and are afraid to pay the rollover interest. I ask of them would you rather spend a few pips and make over a hundred pips or would you rather focus on a few pips? If my target is to make 120 pips, I have no issues in paying 20 pips in rollover interest.

GBP/USD analysis below:

Once again here the price may hit the upper channel before proceeding down and hitting the profit target. It may take a few days or even a week (this is once again an hourly chart). Also remember the prices do not move straight up or down but they do zig zag with retracements. The important thing is we are trading in the direction of the trend. There is nothing to suggest the trend has broken and a reversal is in effect and so the trade should hold good so far. Once again as you can see the lower lows and lower highs and my stop is placed just above the previous high. So if a new high gets created and my trade gets stopped out with a loss it may be an early indicator of either a reversal or pause in the trend. Further analysis at that time would be needed to determine that. Once again most novice traders make the mistake of putting their stops too close and get stopped out. My trades are currently in the negative but well within the pattern which continues to hold true and hence there is no need for me to panic to close out my trade and make an emotional decision. I would rather make an informed judgement call. Once a new low is formed I could potentially move my limit further and aim for higher profits and also move my stop up to reduce my loss exposure. But then these are additional and advanced techniques which I will cover in the future if the pattern holds true. I could also trade mulitple lots and make more. There was a similar situation on the NZD/USD earlier (see my earlier posts on the NZD/USD)

Hope this helps and feel free as usual to ask any questions....
Happy to clarify and help out and share my knowledge....
Good Luck Trading...

Charts, Analysis and Trades for Tonight - Thursday Aug 28, 2008 - 9:40 PM EST

Click on image below to see the new orders tonight and the status of yesterday's trades and account status (then hit browser back button when done):

I did not close my trade on USD/CAD even though it did not execute and I am keeping it in place.

The GBP/USD is currently trading within a downward channel on the hourly charts, should explain why I have placed my trade:

The USD/CHF trade has not completed the Head and Shoulders pattern as yet.

The market rebounded due to good GDP results and the threat from the storm Gustav eased. Currently of course "experts" feel that the state of the rigs in the Gulf are such that they can withstand even a Category Five hurricane. (Personally I think this is just a lot of "bull" and the reality is the price of oil has been pushed so high the market really cannot bear higher prices unless a true disruption took place. The speculators are hesitant to push prices up as this is leading to a global recession which could hurt them in the long run).
Interesting article on CNN.com http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/28/news/economy/oil_gulf_infrastructure/index.htm?cnn=yes
Good Luck Trading and feel free to post questions or participate in discussions.....

New Trades for Tonight - Wed Aug 28 2008

Click on image below to see the new trades for tonight (then hit the browser back button when done):

Classic Head and Shoulders Formation in progress for the USD/CHF. Entry point at neckline. Inspite of erratic market behavior the candlestick formations should stand the test of time and hence my decision to place the trade:

Given the holidays coming up (Labor Day) there is expected to be low trading volumes so if your trades are in the positive please feel free to close them.

Feel free to post questions on www.myforexdna.collectivex.com under discussions.

Good Luck .

Trades for Tonight Sunday August 24, 2008 6:00 PM EST

I did not close my trades on Thursday or Friday (did not get a chance as I was busy). Hence due to oil price fluctuations USD was strong and reversed the prior day's gains. Hence I am net about 20 pips in the negative.

Let me say this:
The markets are behaving irrationally.
Weak economic data usually results in weak currency.
Further with the Feds stating that they do not anticipate raising interest rates again should have resulted in a weaker USD. But what happens....wow, has a negative effect on oil, prices of oil drops and the USD shoots up.

My personal opinion:
Current prices of oil are still due to speculative activity. This is having a direct impact on the USD as this is leading to a global recession as the global economy is now connected to the US economy in more ways than they would like.
Most mortgage backed securities are held by foreign interests. Further foreign interests own a lot of US based assets including corporations etc.
Weak dollar allows them to buy more but the returns on current holdings is soft.
Exporters to the US are suffering as US is a net importer due to a soft USD.
They all want a strong USD, but the Oil speculators have the market captured.
Hence the volatility in the near term.
With the onset of winter sure prices will shoot up a bit but then will fall again if it results in a weak dollar. Interesting times ahead.
Given the situation I have no trades for tonight, but will have signals again tomorrow.

Let me know your thoughts.....

150 + pips profit - Trades for Tonight - Thursday Aug 21 2008 10:40 PM EST

Made a typo last night when I placed the order for the USD/JPY and hence it closed for a 1/100 of a pip loss. But for the typo I would have made 120 pips on the USD/JPY trade alone. In any case have made over 150 pips due to the fall in the USD.

Click on the image below to see the status of my account and the new orders for tonight:




If the order has not executed by tomorrow morning 8:00 am please cancel the trade. If it is in the positive feel free to close at any price you wish.
Please do not leave the trade open over the weekend.
Feel free to visit www.myforexdna.collectivex.com to participate in discussion boards.
Good Luck trading

Trades for Tonight - Wed August 20, 2008 - 8:30 PM EST

The USD/CAD was executed and boy what a swing the market took today. I cancelled the other orders as they did not execute.

The NZD/USD is still open and in the plus since Sunday. We are approx net 35 pips in the red.

Click on the image below to see the orders for today and the position of the account: (hit the browser back button when done)

If the trades have not executed by morning please cancel the orders and else if they are in the positive feel free to close the trade or let it ride as you desire.

Please also visit www.myforexdna.collectivex.com to participate in discussion board.

Good luck.

Trades for Tonight - Tues August 19 2008 9:30 PM EST

I am down approx 30 pips for this month (since the new practise account). My USD/CAD ended in a 90 pip loss but the NZD/USD is up approx 60 pips.

Click on image below and then hit the browser back button when done:

New trades for tonigt are below (click on image below to see details and then hit browser back button when done)

If in the morning you are in the positive and feel like closing your trade you should.

If the orders have not executed by 8:00 am in the morning please cancel them.

Please also visit www.myforexdna.collectivex.com to participate in discussions

New Trades for Tonight - Sunday Aug 17 2008 at 7:10 PM EST

See trades below (Click on image below to see trades and then hit the browser back button when done):

Good luck with the trades.

1100 pips on a single trade

As you can see from my trade placed on July 22 2008, currently I am up 1100 + pips in the profit. The question really is how can one do this in a real account?

The classic evening star formation on the EUR/USD charts at resistance or peak made it possible for me to place my trade around July 22 2008 and I sold EUR/USD at 1.5800. Price hesitations around 1.4900 did make me a bit nervous about my letting the trade remain open but then came the realization that I need to test this out.

It is easy to make this happen in a practise account but in a real account one will be bogged down with emotions and be tempted to cash in the trade much sooner.

Hence I have always maintained

1. Keep emotions out of trading
2. Assume you have already lost the amount of pips you originally had placed the stop at
3. You can move your stop to the open price and let it ride as a free trade
4. trade multiple lots and close lots at varying points or close one and let the other ride out after having moved the stop to the open price hence guaranteeing you no losses.

Even then it is easier said than done as when has real money at stake emotions will take over.

Would like to know your experiences and lets share ideas .... feel free to post here or at

www.myforexdna.collectivex.com

Trades for tonight - Thursday Aug 14 2008 9:45 PM EST

No trades for tonight. My trade for USD/CHF ended in a loss of 100 pips. Hence we are still up net 30 pips for the month.
The USD continues to be strong inspite of bad economic data primarily as higher oil prices are hurting other economies and hence a stronger dollar helps all exporting countries.
I still maintain a long term bearish outlook on the dollar unless there are economic indicators to the contrary which there are none at the moment.
My current practise account will expire this weekend and hence will start trading with a new account next week.

Trades for Tonight - August 13 2008 - 9:00 PM EST : 130 pips profit

Click on the image below and then hit the browser back button when done:

No new trades tonight. Made 130 pips on the GBP/USD trade yesterday. Wow the GBP really moved today.

Further to my comments on Sunday night (see my blog) the following article on CNN confirms what I have been stating as well regarding the weakness of the USD.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/13/news/buck_stops.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008081310

My trade on the USD/CHF is still open and I will let it continue to ride another day.

Feel free to visit www.myforexdna.collectivex.com to participate in discussions.

Trading Signals for Tonight - Tues August 12 2008 - 9:15 PM EST

Click on the image below to see the orders for the day and then hit the browser back button when done:



The above are the orders for tonight.
If the orders have not executed by 8:00 am tomorrow morning please cancel them. Further if they are in the positive and you want to cash in on the trades feel free to do so.

Please visit www.myforexdna.collectivex.com to add to discussion posts.

Status as of Aug 10 2008

We have incurred a net loss of approx 30 pips bteween July and August to date 2008. We made approx 325 pips for June 2008 leaving us with approx 295 pips since June 2008.

Let me say this, I made this mistake most traders make. I got emotionally attached to my trade thinking the USD would weaken. I took a few days off and am back.

All fundamentals still favor a weak dollar. My read of the current situation is this:

The weak US economy is hurting the globe as US is the largest net importer. Further the slight increase in oil inventories have led to market correction for Oil prices which is the excuse the markets have been looking for to strengthen the dollar. The feds announced no new rate increases and yet the dollar became strong against the Swiss Franc !! that too inspite of weak economic data.

The speculators on the commodities market have run their course and hence the oil bubble is bust for the time being.

Will the oil weaken further resulting in a stronger dollar purely due to oil prices? Where will the oil prices settle? I do not know but I do think there will be some back and forth before the prices of oil settle. Whether above $100 or below remains to be seen.

The dollar has gained too much in the last two weeks and anytime we have seen such sudden movement there is a correction and I think this week will tell us if this will happen or not.

I am staying away from trading tonight as it is not clear for the moment where the market will head.

As you can see below from my statement in another account I am 840+ pips on the EUR/USD alone (testing some long term trades).

I will post more trades this week however.

Trades for tonight - Monday Aug 4 2008 at 7:45 PM EST

My trades for the USD/JPY, USD/CHF are still open. The markets did swing today but still within range. The USD/CAD has not executed as the prices have moved up instead of down.
I was a bit aggresive in placing the trades in anticipation of markets moving lower for the USD. Technically speaking I should wait for the confirmation after the doji formation, but since the stochastics were overbought and there were doji's at or near resistance I placed the short trades.
I am going to let the trades ride and still keep the USD/CAD trade pending for one more day.
I do expect certain breakthroughs but this time I will wait for the confirmation signals specially for the EUR/USD, NZD/USD and the AUD/USD.
Will post signals as soon as they are appear.
Will post my account balance tomorrow, we are in the negative so far this month as the trades from end of July are still open and we have not placed any new trades this month so far.