Part 2 for tonight's analysis - see previous post for trades and analysis as well

I posted this after I was asked by one of the readers a few questions. So let me clarify some more:

USD/CHF Analysis below:

I have added the profit target and depicted that on the chart below for the head and shoulders pattern. Now if and when will this target be reached? We are looking at the hourly charts and each bar represents one hour on the time scale. It could be a few days or even a week before the target is reached or could be earlier. If the price hits my stop which is placed just above the second shoulder most likely the pattern will not hold true. Most novices make the mistake of putting the stops too close and are afraid to pay the rollover interest. I ask of them would you rather spend a few pips and make over a hundred pips or would you rather focus on a few pips? If my target is to make 120 pips, I have no issues in paying 20 pips in rollover interest.

GBP/USD analysis below:

Once again here the price may hit the upper channel before proceeding down and hitting the profit target. It may take a few days or even a week (this is once again an hourly chart). Also remember the prices do not move straight up or down but they do zig zag with retracements. The important thing is we are trading in the direction of the trend. There is nothing to suggest the trend has broken and a reversal is in effect and so the trade should hold good so far. Once again as you can see the lower lows and lower highs and my stop is placed just above the previous high. So if a new high gets created and my trade gets stopped out with a loss it may be an early indicator of either a reversal or pause in the trend. Further analysis at that time would be needed to determine that. Once again most novice traders make the mistake of putting their stops too close and get stopped out. My trades are currently in the negative but well within the pattern which continues to hold true and hence there is no need for me to panic to close out my trade and make an emotional decision. I would rather make an informed judgement call. Once a new low is formed I could potentially move my limit further and aim for higher profits and also move my stop up to reduce my loss exposure. But then these are additional and advanced techniques which I will cover in the future if the pattern holds true. I could also trade mulitple lots and make more. There was a similar situation on the NZD/USD earlier (see my earlier posts on the NZD/USD)

Hope this helps and feel free as usual to ask any questions....
Happy to clarify and help out and share my knowledge....
Good Luck Trading...

Charts, Analysis and Trades for Tonight - Thursday Aug 28, 2008 - 9:40 PM EST

Click on image below to see the new orders tonight and the status of yesterday's trades and account status (then hit browser back button when done):

I did not close my trade on USD/CAD even though it did not execute and I am keeping it in place.

The GBP/USD is currently trading within a downward channel on the hourly charts, should explain why I have placed my trade:

The USD/CHF trade has not completed the Head and Shoulders pattern as yet.

The market rebounded due to good GDP results and the threat from the storm Gustav eased. Currently of course "experts" feel that the state of the rigs in the Gulf are such that they can withstand even a Category Five hurricane. (Personally I think this is just a lot of "bull" and the reality is the price of oil has been pushed so high the market really cannot bear higher prices unless a true disruption took place. The speculators are hesitant to push prices up as this is leading to a global recession which could hurt them in the long run).
Interesting article on CNN.com http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/28/news/economy/oil_gulf_infrastructure/index.htm?cnn=yes
Good Luck Trading and feel free to post questions or participate in discussions.....

New Trades for Tonight - Wed Aug 28 2008

Click on image below to see the new trades for tonight (then hit the browser back button when done):

Classic Head and Shoulders Formation in progress for the USD/CHF. Entry point at neckline. Inspite of erratic market behavior the candlestick formations should stand the test of time and hence my decision to place the trade:

Given the holidays coming up (Labor Day) there is expected to be low trading volumes so if your trades are in the positive please feel free to close them.

Feel free to post questions on www.myforexdna.collectivex.com under discussions.

Good Luck .

Trades for Tonight Sunday August 24, 2008 6:00 PM EST

I did not close my trades on Thursday or Friday (did not get a chance as I was busy). Hence due to oil price fluctuations USD was strong and reversed the prior day's gains. Hence I am net about 20 pips in the negative.

Let me say this:
The markets are behaving irrationally.
Weak economic data usually results in weak currency.
Further with the Feds stating that they do not anticipate raising interest rates again should have resulted in a weaker USD. But what happens....wow, has a negative effect on oil, prices of oil drops and the USD shoots up.

My personal opinion:
Current prices of oil are still due to speculative activity. This is having a direct impact on the USD as this is leading to a global recession as the global economy is now connected to the US economy in more ways than they would like.
Most mortgage backed securities are held by foreign interests. Further foreign interests own a lot of US based assets including corporations etc.
Weak dollar allows them to buy more but the returns on current holdings is soft.
Exporters to the US are suffering as US is a net importer due to a soft USD.
They all want a strong USD, but the Oil speculators have the market captured.
Hence the volatility in the near term.
With the onset of winter sure prices will shoot up a bit but then will fall again if it results in a weak dollar. Interesting times ahead.
Given the situation I have no trades for tonight, but will have signals again tomorrow.

Let me know your thoughts.....

150 + pips profit - Trades for Tonight - Thursday Aug 21 2008 10:40 PM EST

Made a typo last night when I placed the order for the USD/JPY and hence it closed for a 1/100 of a pip loss. But for the typo I would have made 120 pips on the USD/JPY trade alone. In any case have made over 150 pips due to the fall in the USD.

Click on the image below to see the status of my account and the new orders for tonight:




If the order has not executed by tomorrow morning 8:00 am please cancel the trade. If it is in the positive feel free to close at any price you wish.
Please do not leave the trade open over the weekend.
Feel free to visit www.myforexdna.collectivex.com to participate in discussion boards.
Good Luck trading

Trades for Tonight - Wed August 20, 2008 - 8:30 PM EST

The USD/CAD was executed and boy what a swing the market took today. I cancelled the other orders as they did not execute.

The NZD/USD is still open and in the plus since Sunday. We are approx net 35 pips in the red.

Click on the image below to see the orders for today and the position of the account: (hit the browser back button when done)

If the trades have not executed by morning please cancel the orders and else if they are in the positive feel free to close the trade or let it ride as you desire.

Please also visit www.myforexdna.collectivex.com to participate in discussion board.

Good luck.

Trades for Tonight - Tues August 19 2008 9:30 PM EST

I am down approx 30 pips for this month (since the new practise account). My USD/CAD ended in a 90 pip loss but the NZD/USD is up approx 60 pips.

Click on image below and then hit the browser back button when done:

New trades for tonigt are below (click on image below to see details and then hit browser back button when done)

If in the morning you are in the positive and feel like closing your trade you should.

If the orders have not executed by 8:00 am in the morning please cancel them.

Please also visit www.myforexdna.collectivex.com to participate in discussions